Overview
Q1 2026 wrapped up with the Lekki–Epe corridor mostly holding its rental yield range, but with sharper than expected dispersion between micromarkets. Lekki Phase 1 and Maitama (Abuja) posted the most stable returns; Ajah saw the steepest dip on a same-property basis.
Our reconciled comparables tracked 3,861 active listings across 12 corridor estates this quarter — enough to read yield at the estate level rather than the city level for the first time.
The headline numbers
Median asking yield for a 3-bedroom apartment held at 6.4% across the corridor, down 20 basis points from Q4 2025 but still above the 5.8% trough we saw in Q2 2025.
Villas and duplexes in Phase 1 outperformed apartments for the third quarter in a row — owner-occupier demand continues to pull rental supply off the market, tightening what is left.
Shortlet yields surprised on the upside: a 2-bed serviced unit in Lekki Phase 2 averaged 11.4% net of management fees over the quarter, up from 9.7% in Q4 2025.
Where yields held up
Lekki Phase 1, Ikoyi (Banana Island sub-strip), and Maitama led the stable-yield ranking. All three share a common driver: low new-supply onboarding combined with consistent demand from corporate relocations.
In Phase 1 specifically, we saw rent growth on renewing leases of 8–11% across the quarter — well above headline inflation. The supply pipeline for Phase 1 remains effectively closed for 2026.
Where yields dipped — and why
Ajah and Sangotedo both lost roughly 60 basis points on the median 3-bed apartment. New supply is the obvious culprit: 14 new mid-rise developments completed in the two areas this quarter alone.
The pricing response has been bifurcated. Brand-new units are pulling top-of-band rents (effectively undercutting older stock by ~12%), while resale and rental of 2018–2021 vintage units is sliding to absorb the new ceiling.
What this means for owners
If you own in a supply-tight micromarket, this is the time to push renewal terms. The market will absorb a 7–9% increase on a renewing lease in Phase 1 without significant churn risk.
If you own in Ajah or Sangotedo, your option set narrows. Hold-and-renovate is a defensible play; flipping into a comparable estate is increasingly hard to justify on yield alone.
Methodology
Yields here are gross asking yield: median asking rent annualised, divided by the median asking price for the same estate-and-type cohort in the same quarter. We reconcile across all listings, not just transactions, since transaction data in Nigeria remains thin.
Shortlet yields use a 60% average occupancy assumption and net of a 25% management fee.
